Regional Climate Models Projections of Wind Speed in Morocco for Period 2020-2050

The Moroccan energy system is highly dependent on external energy markets. Therefore, the current renewable energy strategy is focused on deployment of large-scale renewable technology projects. Morocco has abundant wind resources. Estimations made by developing organizations in Morocco which quantify the economic and technical potential of wind energy in Morocco with the amount of 26 GW.

Aims: This study aims to determine the first approximation in the areas of Morocco which are prospective for the development of wind energy in period for 2020-2050.

Place and Duration of Study: Odessa State Environmental University between September 2017 to March 2018.

Methodology: In this particular study the user data from regional climate modeling with a high spatial resolution of the project CORDEX has been estimated. Simulations of local climate models provide opportunities for a better understanding of atmospheric processes in the region and their possible future change. In this study use of regional climate models simulate the RCP of 4.5 scenarios for the Africa region, which is presented in a rectangular coordinate system with a spatial resolution of ≈ 44 km. As a result of the regional climate model calculation, the mean monthly Near-Surface Wind Speed (10-meter Wind Speed) values from 2020-2050 for the territory of Morocco.

Results: Regional climate models simulations showed that in Morocco will be dominated by gentle and moderate winds, with a mean speed of 4-6 m/s, and only in the southern part of the Atlantic coast its values can reach 7-9 m/s. The smallest values of the mean wind speed are predicted in Fez − Meknes and Beni-Mellal − Henifra regions, and will be about 3 m/s; the highest values can reach 9 m/s on the Atlantic coast to the south of Dakhla village. An analysis showed that in the future some characters of annual course, in general, will have two types.

Conclusion: The most favorable for the development of wind energy will be areas located on the shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean and in the southern part Morocco.